There’s a lot in the news lately about the declining birthrate in our country and across the globe.

The replacement rate for the United States is set at 2.1 live births per women, which means the average number of children born to a woman required to sustain current population. These vary slightly between advanced and emerging countries, so that the replacement rate for the planet is at 2.2.

The fertility rate in the United States is currently 1.6, down from a high of 3.77 in 1957. In many countries it’s even lower. The Global fertility rate has fallen from a peak of 5.3 in 1963 to 2.1 in 2024. You may wonder, is this really a problem? Wouldn’t having fewer lives to sustain make living easier for the rest of us – and for the health of our planet? Yet, there are very real reasons to be concerned.

One writer on Substack (Roger Pielke Jr.) extrapolated the decline to lead to a mind-boggling population implosion of less than 10 million people by the year 2500. The author also stated, “If birth rates stay below the replacement rate, over this century there will be disruptive consequences for the structure of the economy.” He’s basing his predictions on data and statistics, but the effects on humanity should also be factored into the equation.

Elon Musk, the father of at least fourteen children has stated, “The birth rate is very low in almost every country, and so unless that changes, civilization will disappear.” Like Musk’s progeny, I can relate to being from a large family.

I grew up with five brothers and two sisters. I always thought it odd when learning that a new friend had just one or two siblings or, egad – was an only child! Ironically, I married on of those – and we ended up somewhere in the middle, with two children of our own.

I can chart a real-life illustration of declining population trends using data from my family. My parents each came from large families. Mom had four siblings. Dad had five. My parents had eight children. That was still considered a lot of kids in the 50’s and 60’s – but families of four to six were pretty common.

The average family size has gotten much smaller since then. Between my siblings and I, we have a total of 16 offspring. My younger sister had four kids. The rest of us had one, two, or three kids – and called it a day. That generation has produced seven children – so far.

While I’m sure our family has more babies to come, we seem to be trending with the rest of the country where people are waiting longer to have children and having fewer of them than past generations. And many people are choosing not to have children at all.

I have several friends who don’t expect any grandchildren. Their children have decided they don’t want to be parents, haven’t met a partner or may have fertility issues.

People are choosing not to become parents for a variety of reasons. For some it’s concern over the cost of raising children in today’s economy. While past generations seemed willing to take the plunge and make do, people are more financially pragmatic these days.

Others cite trepidations about the state of the world and question whether they want to bring life into it when there are so many things to worry about – from climate concerns, to wars, to political divisiveness. There seems to be a lack of faith that the future will be a place where children can thrive.

What does this mean for us in the near future – and in the decades and centuries to come? Will society be able to function if the birthrate continues to decline? Who will pay into social security and other benefits that rely on a stable population growth? Who will take care of our elderly? And what will happen in a world where more and more people don’t see the value of having children – whatever their reasons?

Readers share their thoughts on why the birthrate is declining:

Toni Lemmon: “I’ve had this conversation with both of my sons, one with children and the other without. They said that among them and their friends, several things come into factor: The state of what’s going on in this country and the world. The cost of having kids. Public school systems, i.e. what is being taught and the safety of children in schools. All of the divisiveness and hate that is being spread. People are very skeptical about bringing children into this world because we are living in a society that is lacking a moral compass. More children have anxiety issues than at any other time in history.”

Nelena Liff: “I think most people want a family, but a large one doesn’t appeal. Once they start, they realize quickly that just one to three is more than plenty. It’s easier to do things with fewer kids – like vacations. Plus, a smaller family fits more easily in most living arrangements.”

Betsy Holder Bradley: “It’s a combination of cost and expectations in parenting. Daycare, health insurance, travel, sports extracurricular, college…. It’s gone through the roof with my generation of parents as far as expenses. Then there’s just the time commitment of parenting and what you can give to each child.”

Becky Preston: “I have a few reasons I believe the rate is dropping. Couples are marrying later and waiting longer to start their family, resulting in a smaller family size. Lifestyle is also a factor. Many choose to have experiences and travel vs the traditional choice of starting a family. I also wonder what impact divorce plays in the decision. With so many young adults coming from divorced parent situations, does that play a role in their decision about marriage and starting a family?”

Kim Arnold: “At the moment, none of mine are interested. They say it seems “hard and expensive.” Interactions with babysitting, camp counseling and poorly behaved kids has deterred them as well. I think, more than anything, they are getting married later and they want to see the world and enjoy life. My older girls are seeing, in real life, what it is going to cost to live. People are getting married in their 30s and not even thinking twice about it. Good on them to go live their own lives if that’s what they choose!”

Michael Lewis Street: “It is a fact that children are raised best in a married household, and those are not as common as in the greatest generation. We hear from the younger generations that marriage is not necessary and less attractive than cohabitation. I believe younger people have drawn such a conclusion because we have built for them a throw away and recycle society. The number of divorces prove that starting in my generation couples believe less in someone they made a commitment to love and more in self-realization.”

Tera Holm: “My daughter and her husband do not plan on having children. They are having way too much fun and enjoying their careers. Both are only children. They do enjoy being Aunt and Uncle to their friend’s children.”

Kent Gardner: “We do not have any kids ourselves and I know quite a few couples in their 50s and older with no children. My mom stayed home with four kids in the 50s and 60s simply because one income could easily cover the cost of living, including a mortgage, and provide for children. Starting in the late 70s, both sexes wanted to have a career and be independent. That enabled home builders to raise the price of homes (two incomes instead of one). Same for car manufacturers. Throw in the costs of college loans among other essentials. The younger generations see the expenses as well as the cloudy future of quality of life. That all adds up.”

Michael Lewis Street: “In today’s world, people don’t want to do without and will put off having kids until they feel they can afford them without having to cut into other expenditures. Other factors include people just not wanting to settle down or deal with the responsibilities of raising children. Or they are afraid the world is becoming a place they don’t want to bring children into. There is a lot of hopelessness and fear. Then there are people who’d love to have a family but can’t find the right person.”